New Delhi’s relationships with Kathmandu and Dhaka are pivotal for India’s national security, economic growth, regional connectivity, and stability. In 2024, a student-led uprising in Bangladesh ousted pro-Indian Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina from power. Since then, relations between New Delhi and Dhaka have grown strained. While observers initially expected ties to improve following the general elections, a recovery has yet to materialize. Nepal experienced a similar political shift in 2025, prompting New Delhi to rush to turn the new domestic scenario to its advantage. Foreign policy analysts are now closely watching the emerging trends across the New Delhi–Kathmandu and New Delhi–Dhaka axes.
For the past few months, speculation has grown around the much-anticipated visits of Nepal Prime Minister Balendra Shah and Bangladesh Prime Minister Tarique Rahman to New Delhi. India’s Ministry of External Affairs at South Block reiterates almost weekly that invitations have been extended to both leaders. Both Dhaka and Kathmandu have experienced more than a simple change of government—they have undergone complete regime changes. Both nations are now led by younger faces who lean more toward the West than toward India.
Prime Minister Shah has expressed unwillingness to visit India immediately, adhering to his self-imposed policy of avoiding foreign travel during his first year in office. He met with the Indian Ambassador in Kathmandu only after four months in power. Nevertheless, a recent meeting between Shah and the Indian Army Chief helped establish a connection at the top political level. After Shah declined to visit India immediately upon taking office, New Delhi extended an official invitation to the Chairman of the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP).
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Rahman is delaying his trip to India due to domestic political pressures and delicate issues surrounding Sheikh Hasina, who currently resides in India under political asylum. Because New Delhi views both neighboring nations as indispensable partners, Indian political leadership remains eager to engage with both prime ministers despite these lingering differences.
Compared to Dhaka, India’s relationship with Nepal remains relatively stable, even if not at its peak. Although high-level executive visits have been absent, the two countries continue to hold regular bilateral mechanism meetings. Growing Chinese influence in Kathmandu remains a primary concern for New Delhi. However, engagement between Kathmandu and Beijing has been minimal under the new administration—a positive sign for India.
Indian geopolitical analysts view the situation in Bangladesh as vastly different from that of Nepal. They point out that the new regime in Dhaka is simultaneously warming ties with both the West and China. During the Bangladeshi Prime Minister’s visit to Beijing in June, the two nations signed 13 agreements.
New Delhi remains keen on direct, high-level talks with the leaders of both Nepal and Bangladesh. Indian High Commissioner to Bangladesh Dinesh Trivedi noted that outstanding issues can only be resolved through direct dialogue, emphasizing that the Bangladeshi Prime Minister should visit India as soon as possible to build mutual trust. India has also invited Bangladesh’s Prime Minister to the upcoming BRICS summit next month, though his attendance remains uncertain. New Delhi firmly maintains that if the leaders sit down together, they can create an environment of trust necessary to address and resolve all pending bilateral matters. It remains unclear about the future trajectory of India’s relationship with two countries.
